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The ‘Roar’

“It’s the end of the world as we know it… And I feel fine.”  R.E.M., 1987

No. You don’t have déjà vu, I used this line to open my last letter a few months ago. Since, the first half of the quote has held true, if not the second. In a few short months, the mood has shifted, dramatically. As a result, the calculus of much has changed and the landscape continues to move under our feet.

Geopolitically, the world is again confronting the conflicting interests and visions between democracy and authoritarianism. These divisions no longer run solely along international and country lines. Today, these conflicts are deeply ensconced inside nations themselves, including the United States, where the politics are growing more divisive. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the largest military conflict the globe has seen in decades, has the world questioning the progress of the post-World War Two era and of economic globalization as a driver of prosperity and peace.

This means that the planning and investing calculi have changed, too.  In a flash, interest rates on all things bond-related – mortgages, car loans and government debt rose. The U.S. ten-year treasury bond, which is used as a benchmark for many lending rates, practically doubled, practically overnight. The Federal Reserve has stated its intention to continue to hike the fed funds rate, which will then increase rates for many other borrowers.

Continuing to drive worry, the inflation numbers haven’t stopped flashing extremely hot as corporations raise prices on top of already steep rises in shipping and input costs. This drives interest rates higher too, but the ‘good’ news there is that, with higher interest rates comes higher income for those investors that are in retirement or simply more conservative. For longer term investors who are not concerned about income from their portfolios, the focus now turns to ‘real’ returns.

‘Real return’ is defined as the amount of return that your money nets over inflation each year or over time. For example, if your portfolio returns ten percent in a year but inflation is running at five percent per year, then your real return is five percent – not as good. Conversely, if your money is in a bank account, earning one percent when inflation is running at five percent, then you are losing four percent per year on a real return basis – even worse. As advisors, the focus on real returns is always present. Our goal is to not only preserve but also grow purchasing power over time for our clients.  


A simple, often overlooked truth when we think about investing for retirement and life beyond work is that we must not stop, ever. When a certain goal is reached, such as paying for college, it will no longer require saving and investing for. However, as we age and convert retirement and personal accounts into income producing vehicles, we nonetheless can never ‘get up from the [investment] table’ and cash in all our chips. The dangers of inflation and earning negative real returns, where your money today will buy much less tomorrow are genuine and ever-present. Markets and the world at large will continue to behave in strange and unpredictable ways. There are times that require holding on just a bit tighter – this is one of them.


Scott Lasky, CFP™

Lionshead Wealth Management, LLC is an investment adviser in New York. Lionshead Wealth Management, LLC is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission.  Lionshead Wealth Management only transacts business in states in which it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration.  A copy of Lionshead Wealth Management 's current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Lionshead Wealth Management's business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please note, the information provided in this document is for informational purposes only and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular service or product is suitable for their investment needs. Please refer to the disclosure and offering documents for further information concerning specific products or services. Nothing provided in this document constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments. Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction. This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio's operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of Lionshead Wealth Management or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made.

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